ABSTRACT
Background: Few models exist that incorporate measures from an array of individual characteristics to predict the risk of COVID-19 infection in the general population. The aim was to develop a prognostic model for COVID-19 using readily obtainable clinical variables. Methods: Over 74 weeks surveys were periodically administered to a cohort of 1381 participants previously uninfected with COVID-19 (June 2020 to December 2021). Candidate predictors of incident infection during follow-up included demographics, living situation, financial status, physical activity, health conditions, flu vaccination history, COVID-19 vaccine intention, work/employment status, and use of COVID-19 mitigation behaviors. The final logistic regression model was created using a penalized regression method known as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Internal validation was performed via bootstrapping, and results were adjusted for overoptimism. Results: Of the 1381 participants, 154 (11.2%) had an incident COVID-19 infection during the follow-up period. The final model included six variables: health insurance, race, household size, and the frequency of practicing three mitigation behavior (working at home, avoiding high-risk situations, and using facemasks). The c-statistic of the final model was 0.631 (0.617 after bootstrapped optimism-correction). A calibration plot suggested that with this sample the model shows modest concordance with incident infection at the lowest risk. Conclusion: This prognostic model can help identify which community-dwelling older adults are at the highest risk for incident COVID-19 infection and may inform medical provider counseling of their patients about the risk of incident COVID-19 infection.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral illness with public health importance. The Cabarrus County COVID-19 Prevalence and Immunity (C3PI) Study is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study designed to contribute valuable information on community prevalence of active COVID-19 infection and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies as the pandemic and responses to it have and continue to evolve. We present the rationale, study design, and baseline characteristics of the C3PI Study. METHODS: We recruited 1,426 participants between June 2020 and August 2020 from the Measurement to Understand the Reclassification of Disease of Cabarrus/Kannapolis (MURDOCK) Study Community Registry and Biorepository, a previously established, community-based, longitudinal cohort. Participants completed a baseline survey and follow-up surveys every two weeks. A nested weighted, random sub-cohort (n=300) was recruited to measure the incidence and prevalence of active COVID-19 infection and SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. RESULTS: The sub-cohort was younger (56 vs 61 years), had more men (39.0% vs 30.9%), and a higher proportion of Hispanic (11.0% vs 5.1%) and Black participants (17.0% vs 8.2%) compared with the overall cohort. They had similar anthropometrics and medical histories, but a greater proportion of the sub-cohort had a higher educational degree (36.1% vs 31.3%) and reported a pre-pandemic annual household income of >$90,000 (57.1% vs 47.9%). CONCLUSION: This study is part of a multisite consortium that will provide critical data on the epidemiology of COVID-19 and community perspectives about the pandemic, behaviors and mitigation strategies, and individual and community burden in North Carolina.